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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.