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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still